Investor-driven condos forecasted to fill housing gap through 2021

According to a report from Central 1 Credit Union, Ontario’s housing market is forecasted to grow through 2021, and that includes the need for investor-driven condos in downtown Toronto.

“In higher urban markets, condos should remain a viable investment vehicle because there are a lot of people coming in who will need a roof over their heads,” said Central 1’s regional economist, Edgard Navarrete, the report’s author.

“Population growth is still at about trend, or even slightly above trend, over the next three years and that’s because, even though the housing market is at times relatively unaffordable in the region as a whole, the economy is still attracting a lot of people for work and to education institutions, particularly in urban centres.”

The supply of purpose-built rentals, townhomes and condo apartments has been on the rise throughout Ontario due to strong population growth. Navarrette added that Ontario’s population is forecasted to grow 1.7% this year, 1.7% next year, and 1.8% in 2021.

“With an influx of people coming in, there will be increased demand for condo apartments, townhomes and single-detached homes in secondary markets to meet that demand,” he said.

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s First-Time Home Buyer Incentive, according to the Central 1 report, will help buyers gain entry into the housing market, but it may be short-lived as demand will likely result in bidding wars, thereby driving prices skyward.

“Part of the reason they put this in place is to help people get into higher-density housing, but, unfortunately, with the program starting in September the increased demand for entry-level condos will start raising the prices in that segment, and you can expect bidding wars,” said Navarrette.

Although Central 1’s report is, overall, optimistic, it warns of headwinds blowing from the U.S.-China tariff war.

“We’re also expecting the economy to slow down a bit over the next couple of years,” said Navarrette. “It won’t be below negative growth, but it will grow below trend because of our trading partners, not our economy. The U.S. has put in protectionist measures, which could slow down their economy, the global economy, and we’d be affected through trade channels, which will affect consumer confidence, business confidence, and business investment, as well as spending on big ticket items like cars.”

www.canadianrealestatemagazine.ca | by Neil Sharma | 24 Jul 2019

Commercial real estate remains hot commodity in Greater Victoria

Commercial real estate remains hot commodity in Greater Victoria

Victoria city hall is reflected in the glass of the mixed-use development at 1515 Douglas St. | Adrian Lam, Times Colonist

Market rental tower going up on Robson Street

Vancouver mayor welcomes pet-friendly West End highrise, citing need for market rental buildings

To emphasize that the new highrise being built at 1500 Robson St. will be pet friendly, two dogs — Hazel and Trink — made an appearance at the Feb. 20 ground breaking. They're pictured with (left to right) Mayor Kennedy Stewart, as well as Ralf Dost, Steve Marino and Jeff Fleming from GWL Realty Advisors.

It’s unusual to see a pair of dogs — in this case Hazel and Trink — at a press conference packed with developers, real estate types and politicians. But not when you’re trying to underscore the fact a new development will be pet friendly in a city where it's notoriously difficult to find an apartment that accepts animals.

That was the case Feb. 20 at a ground breaking for a 21-storey market rental building going up at 1500 Robson St. in Vancouver’s West End.

The pooches got a front-row seat to hear speakers, including Mayor Kennedy Stewart, praise the tower, which will produce 128 rental units, a third of which (42 units) will be two- and three-bedroom family-sized apartments ranging from 753 to 978 square feet.

London Life Insurance Company is the owner of the project, which is being developed by GWL Realty Advisors and designed by IBI Group

The tower is being built on Robson at Nicola Street and is expected to be completed in 2021. | Rendering IBI Group

The tower is being built on Robson at Nicola Street and is expected to be completed in 2021. | Rendering IBI Group

It’s one of the first rental towers to be built along Robson in decades, “in a city that’s in need of rental housing and in a neighbourhood of luxury condominiums,” according to GWL Realty, and the first rental project on Robson to be approved under the city’s West End Community Plan, which was adopted in 2014.

Ralf Dost, president of GWL Realty Advisors’ real estate portfolio, said it’s important to create more purpose-built rental apartments given Vancouver’s tight vacancy rate and the fact much of the existing stock is dated and in need of upgrades.

“We also know how challenging it is to make financial sense of multi-residential developments, especially in this West End neighbourhood, so all of these factors make the launch of this project today that much more gratifying,” he said.

Stewart agreed that increasing the supply of secured market rental apartments “is more important than ever” when more than 50 per cent of residents are renters and vacancy rates are at an all-time low.

“It’s the kind of ground-breaking we all like to come to because it is helping us with our key problem of [increasing] market rentals. We need all kinds of rentals in the city — we need affordable rentals, but market rentals are also a key part of fixing our supply problem,” he said, while adding that residents have also been pushing for the construction of units big enough for families.

“Increasing the supply as well as diversity of rental housing in our city will benefit all Vancouverites, especially young families. I used to rent right across the street so I know how vibrant this neighbourhood is, and bringing 128 more families in here is just going to really help the local merchants.”

The highrise, located at the corner of Robson and Nicola streets, is expected to be completed in 2021. It will feature “substantial” bicycle storage and maintenance facilities, as well as indoor and outdoor amenities, including fitness, yoga and lounge rooms, a rooftop patio and a common area for tenants on the penthouse floor.

It’s replacing a low-rise commercial building that used to face Robson, which featured a few residential units, as well as a residential building behind it that was mostly rented to international students. The 12 tenants who lived in the two buildings were relocated elsewhere with some assistance. GWL Realty Advisors provided tenants with the equivalent of two or more months’ rent based on length of tenancy, and support with moving expenses.

It’s too early to say what rents will be in the new building, but they will be at market rates.

The average rent for a bachelor suite in the West End was $1,254 in 2018, according to CMHC data, while a one-bedroom was $1,566, a two-bedroom was $2,330 and a three-bedroom was $3,368 — tough rates for the average Vancouverite to afford.

Stewart told the Courier the city is focused on ensuring both market and affordable rental units are created.

“We need rental for all income levels. I’m a renter. My wife and I are renters, and we can afford to live in market rental housing, and that’s what we live in. There’s lots of employment in this city that’s coming in where you have folks that have a higher income level that need this kind of housing too,” he said. “[While] our focus is going to be on making sure we maximize the number of the non-market housing units that we have built, we also have to encourage this kind of build... That’s why I’m here at this announcement today. [It's] because this kind of housing is also needed.”

When asked what he would say to West End residents who’ve complained the community plan bumped up land values so high that it’s pushing people out of the neighbourhood due to redevelopment, Kennedy said: “The West End area plan is full of protections for folks living there now and into the future, so we just have to make sure we get the balance right. It is these developers and these construction companies that are building all the housing in the city. We are living in a market economy. However, we have to do everything we can to incentivise non-market housing development and get the federal and provincial governments back into the housing game so they can help us provide much more affordable units. But the focus is on rentals of all levels here at the city.”


The 21-storey tower at 1500 Robson St. will feature 128 market rental units. Rendering IBI Group

The 21-storey tower at 1500 Robson St. will feature 128 market rental units. Rendering IBI Group

Naoibh O’Connor Vancouver CourierFebruary 20, 2019 | westerninvestor.com

Future Broadway Corridor shopping hub comes into focus

Cambie at West Broadway eyed for long-term redevelopment plans

Retailers are looking at 2019 as a year when a strong B.C. economy will keep sales growth robust, even as e--commerce continues to chip away at bricks-and-mortar store sales.

The future of retail space in both traditional and emerging spaces near Vancouver transit stations will likely gain clarity, while established prime shopping strips in the city struggle to remain relevant.

And while some of those strips have endured plenty of empty storefronts, there will be a collection of new retailers staking territory and vying for success.

One emerging retail area in Vancouver that is likely to be a high-traffic hub in a decade is unlikely to be on many people’s radar in 2019, as its transformation is largely in a conceptual stage.

Work crews, however, are gutting longtime retail spaces on the northwest corner of West Broadway at Cambie Street, where a second-floor Original Joe’s restaurant has long had prominent signage.  A ground-floor Starbucks and a string of other businesses stretching west all vacated space months ago to make way for a mixed-use building that will have five storeys of office space above two storeys of retail.

Pacific Crown Management Co. Ltd. gained a development permit earlier this year for the Yorkson Investment Co. Ltd.-owned site at 510 West Broadway, which is across the street from the Broadway-City Hall Canada Line station.

The project is significant because it is the first of many projects that are in various stages of conception. Those projects are expected to transform the area into a hub because it will in future be home to the intersection of two transit lines. Work on the Millennium Line Broadway Extension is expected to start in 2020 and complete in 2025.

B.C.’s Ministry of Transportation told Business in Vancouver that work to determine exact station locations is underway, and the ministry is now initiating discussions with property owners.

Rumours have circulated in retail circles about the possibility of a shopping centre being built under city hall and its lawns, which are south of the Canada Line station. The City of Vancouver is allotting $2 million for “master planning for the city hall precinct” in its 2019 budget.

Other potential projects in the neighourhood could be on sites such as 310 West Broadway, about a block east, where there is now a No Frills grocery store, said Retail Insider Media owner Craig Patterson.

“It’s safe to say that there are multiple proposals for development based on the fact that transit is being expanded in that area,” Patterson said.

The city’s current shopping hub servicing two transit lines is at the corner of Granville and West Georgia streets, where the landmark Hudson’s Bay Co. (HBC) building has been subject to much speculation over its future.

HBC and joint venture partner RioCan REIT put the store’s real estate on the block in 2017 and were rumoured to have been close to a sale in 2018. That deal fell through, however, prompting a reassessment of the site’s future and possibly the severing of an agreement between HBC and workspace company WeWork.

WeWork had been slated to lease the top two floors so HBC could consolidate in the rest of the building.

“I don’t know what will happen with WeWork,” Patterson said. “That was to be the sublease agreement. They were supposed to come in. The Bay was going to move menswear into the basement. We’ll see if that happens.”

Retailers along longtime prime shopping streets such as Robson and Alberni, meanwhile, will have their work cut out for them in the new year.

Robson Street in 2018 suffered a lot of rotation and plenty of empty storefronts in prime blocks east of Bute Street.

 “I was told that some stores’ sales on Alberni Street, in the luxury area, are down,” Patterson said, adding that he has heard that the reason for the sales decline is a drop in traffic from Chinese tourists – and this was before Canada arrested high-profile Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou.

Rumblings about boycotts of Canadian goods and anti-Canada sentiment in Chinese media may stem the flow of wealthy Chinese tourists to Vancouver in 2019, and that could hurt shopping strips such as Alberni Street, Patterson said.

Nonetheless, he expects new retailers such as Warby Parker, Vacheron Constantin, Montblanc and Cartier to open Vancouver stores and to do well.

Hermès’ future two-storey flagship store is under construction on the southwest corner of Burrard and West Georgia streets. Retail sales in B.C. in 2018 are expected to grow by less than 4 per cent, which would be less than half of the 9.6 per cent retail sales growth in the province in 2017 – the highest annual rate since 1994, and the largest increase among provinces.

B.C. has the lowest unemployment rate among provinces and the economy is strong, however, and those are positive indicators for retail sales growth in 2019.

Copyright © Western Investor  Glen Korstrom Business in Vancouver January 24, 2019
  

B.C. commercial building permits break record

Statistics Canada data for November show the province issued the highest value of commercial building permits on record

The value of permits issued for commercial buildings in B.C. has never been higher.

New commercial permits topped $564 million in November, a 130 per cent increase over October, according to Statistics Canada. The agency reported that a $240-million permit for a new office tower in the Greater Vancouver region contributed most to the gain.

Total non-residential permits – which include commercial, institutional and industrial developments – reached nearly $742 million, a 75 per cent increase over the month before.

B.C. accounted for most of the national increase in non-residential building permit values, which rose 11.6 per cent in November to $3.3 billion.

Not all B.C. values rose.

Month to month, the value of permits for residential buildings fell 27 per cent to $893 million. The decline was driven primarily by a drop in permit values for single family dwellings, which fell 30 per cent.

Victoria, Vancouver among top national permit issuers

At the regional level, Victoria and Vancouver saw the third and fourth largest year-over-year gains for total permit values.

In Victoria, November values rose 72.6 per cent over 2017. In Vancouver, they were up 63.4 per cent.

Both regions were behind only Quebec, where values rose 177.3 per cent, and Brantford, where values increased by 158.2 per cent.

In total, Canadian municipalities issued $8.3 billion in building permits in November, up 2.6 per cent from October and 6.6 per cent over 2017.

Hayley Woodin Business in Vancouver | January 10, 2019

https://www.westerninvestor.com/news/british-columbia/b-c-commercial-building-permits-break-record-1.23590123

Provincial leaders hear conflicting advice on strata rentals

Rental task force recommends allowing all strata condo units to be rented, while industry group argues this would fuel speculation


B.C.’s Premier John Horgan and housing minister Selina Robinson are receiving opposing recommendations on whether to ban rental restrictions on strata units, or continue to allow strata corporations to limit rentals.

Currently, B.C. strata corporations formed before 2010 may have a low cap on the number of rentals allowed in their building – a bylaw that some housing advocates have argued causes units to sit empty as they cannot be rented out.

To avoid this, all strata corporations formed since 2010 have not been permitted to put rental restrictions in place, which means all owners of post-2010 condos may rent out their units.

The NDP government’s Rental Housing Task Force last week issued 23 recommendations for amending the Residential Tenancy Act. Its ninth recommendation was to “increase the availability of currently empty strata units by eliminating a strata corporation's ability to ban owners from renting their own strata units” – no matter how old the building.

The task force wrote in its Recommendations and Findings, “As one online participant wrote in support of removing rental bans in strata properties, ‘Allowing stratas to ban rentals assumes that renters are hazardous, and supports vacant condos owned by speculators. Condos have become fundamental to the supply of rental housing and should not be allowed to be prohibited.’ Most Canadian provinces allow owners of strata units to rent them out and do not allow discrimination against renters.”

It added, “While the Task Force believes this change will help to increase the rental housing supply, it is also important to give strata corporations the ability to evict tenants in exceptional cases where negligence, abuse or law breaking is disrupting the quiet enjoyment of other residents, putting people in danger, or harming the building.”

Would rental free-for-all fuel speculation?

However, the Condominium Home Owners’ Association of B.C. (CHOA) is lobbying to maintain the status quo that allows strata corporations to limit rentals in their buildings.

Tony Gioventu, executive director of CHOA, told Glacier Media ahead of the task force’s recommendations that allowing all condos to be rented out at the owner’s discretion would do the opposite of the intended result to increase supply, and would fuel investor speculation.

Gioventu said that condo buildings with no rental restrictions actually tend to have a much higher rate of empty units, as a higher proportion of the homes are purchased by investors. Units in unrestricted buildings are much more attractive to investor-purchasers, as those units can be rented out at any time. However, buildings with a lot of investor-owners tend to also have a higher proportion of units sitting empty.

Gioventu cited the results of a CHOA study of 16 buildings in Greater Vancouver with 50 or more units. Eight were built after 2010, and therefore had no rental restrictions, and eight before 2010.

“The pre-2010 strata buildings with rental restrictions bylaws had the lowest proportion of empty units,” said Gioventu. He said that these buildings had vacancy rates of two per cent or lower, meaning that virtually every unit was occupied, mostly by owners or their families.

In the strata buildings built after 2010, CHOA found vacancy rates were between 20 and 35 per cent. However, Gioventu added this had less to do with the freely permitted rentals, and more to do with investors and speculators tending to buy higher proportions of post-2010 condos.

He said, “They’re empty because the owners don’t want to deal with tenants. Those are the buildings that should be targeted.”

The City of Vancouver’s empty homes tax, and the province’s speculation and vacant homes tax, were implemented recently with the aim of solving exactly that problem.

Selena Robinson, minister of municipal affairs and housing, said she will deliver the recommendations to Premier Horgan, and the ministry will spend the coming weeks considering how the recommendations might be implemented and consulting with stakeholder groups.

Joannah Connolly Glacier Media Real Estate | December 19, 2018 | www.westerninvestor.com

Commercial real estate investment value on pace to surpass 2017 total

Investment in Canadian commercial real estate is expected to break records for a third consecutive year, led by demand in the Toronto markets and industrial sector

Commercial real estate dollar volume in the third quarter of 2018 has signified potential for another record-breaking year in investment value.

Commercial investment across the country may reach an all-time high for the third year in a row, according to new statistics by CBRE. The third quarter recorded 38.6 billion in sales year-to-date, nearly exceeding the $43 million total investment value in 2017. 

“This is the third year Canadian CRE investment will have hit an all-time high in trading volumes, and it’s no secret why: Canada boasts a rapidly growing population and diverse economy, and the security of income from real estate versus other asset classes looks like a safer bet,” said Peter Senst, president of CBRE Canada, Capital Markets. 

Investment value was led primarily by demand in the Toronto market and the industrial sector. 

Commercial investment in Toronto accounted for $14.5 million year-to-date, followed by $4.5 million in Montreal, $3.8 billion in Calgary and $3.3 billion in Edmonton.

Industrial investment across Canada accounted for more than a quarter of all real estate transaction value at $10.1 billion year-to-date – eclipsing the total dollar volume for 2017 of $7.4 billion. 

“Calgary has already doubled its 2017 industrial investment total and Edmonton has tripled its 2017 industrial investment volumes, while Halifax has seen its industrial investment increase nearly tenfold compared with 2017’s total: $215 million versus $26 million,” the press release reads.

Multi-family real estate is the second-best performing asset class, accounting for $5.5 billion in sales so far this year. 

Moving forward, lack of available multi-family stock and land supply for new projects may slow further investment.

Tanya Commisso | Western Investor | December 20, 2018

  

Five hottest British Columbia news stories of 2018

Western Investor's most-read stories, from dual-agency regulation to new and expanded residential real estate taxes

During a year of major real estate policy and regulation change, it comes as no surprise that WesternInvestor.com’s most-viewed B.C. stories gave readers the insight into these new developments, including B.C’s foreign buyer tax, restrictions on assignment sales to prevent ‘shadow flipping’ and ‘ double-ending’. Readers also frequented the sight to get the lowdown on up-and-coming investment destinations.

Here is our annual countdown of our five most-read British Columbia stories published in 2018.

5. Mill town of Powell River becomes low-cost investment destination

Our first story to garner the most views this year focuses on the economic growth of Vancouver Island town Powell River, a los-cost alternative to the mainland with a 80.3 per cent increase in housing sales year-over-year. 

4. Dual agency rules will disrupt housing market, real estate agents claim

Changes to the B.C. Real Estate Services Act that came into effect June 15, 2018 prohibited "double ending" – representing both a buyer and a seller in a real estate transaction. In our story, real estate professionals worried it could slowdown sales – and as the year progressed, they may have had a point. 

3. China's largest online retailer to start selling Canadian real estate

This quick-hit story on Chinese real estate portal Juwai.com and retail site JD.com teaming up to offer Canadian real estate to Asian consumers garnered the third-most views this year, showing us that readers are still drawn to stories on foreign investment in Vancouver property. 

2. Higher-priced house markets nailed by tax hike

Our second-most read story of the year focused on the first effects on the housing market following the B.C. Budget 2018 housing measures announcement. Pricey markets like Vancouver’s west side were the first to fall, seeing prices down 70 per cent in April 2018 versus April 2016. 

1. Canada Revenue Agency recruited to help fight mortgage fraud

Our most-read story of the year covered the CRA’s recruitment to combating mortgage fraud together with the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation, by allowing lender to have access to an applicant’s tax data. Together with numerous Bank of Canada interest rates this year, it’s no surprise that readers we’re reading and watching to see how new regulations would affect mortgage eligibility in a changing market.